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探花精选

探花精选 Industry Employment Trends: 1990-2017 (October 2017)

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By Steven Weisbart, Chief Economist聽

The U.S. Labor Department鈥檚 Bureau of聽Labor Statistics (BLS) just published data as of October 2017 on detailed聽insurance industry employment, and the聽探花精选 Information Institute (I.I.I.)website contains updated multi-decade trend data in chart form. (The insurance聽industry/sector-specific data are not seasonally adjusted and are one month聽behind the national data; accordingly, the report released on December 8聽provides national data for November 2017 and industry/sector-specific data for聽October 2017.) Data for the last few months are preliminary and are often聽revised later, but revisions are usually small. The I.I.I. slides show聽employment trends for聽property/casualty (P/C), life/annuity, health (mainly聽medical expense) insurers and reinsurers, agents and brokers, independent聽claims adjusters, and third-party administrators.

Employment in the general U.S. economy聽continues to be strong. In October 2017, on a year-over-year basis, employment聽in most major segments of the insurance industry was mixed to varying degrees,聽including a spike in independent claims adjusting.

For the 12 months ending October 2017,聽P/C carrier employment rose by 9,000 (+1.6 percent) to 568,300, despite drops聽of 3,900 in August and 4,100 in October. Employment in this segment in October聽is usually up. Since 1990聽it rose 18 times and fell 10 times; the large drop in聽October 2017 is the largest one-month drop since at least 1990 (except for聽reclassifications in employment segments in 2004). From another perspective, in聽the 33 months since the low point of January 2015, employment in this segment聽has surged鈥攗p by 53,700 (+10.4 percent).

Employment by life/annuity carriers聽fell in October 2017 vs. October 2016 (down 700, or -0.2 percent) to 348,700.聽Employment in this segment has fallen in four of the last six months and five聽of the 10 months in 2017 (one other聽month had no gains or losses), but rose in聽October 2017 vs. September 2017 (up 1,600). It is hard to see longer-term聽employment trends in the BLS data for life/annuity carriers. This is because聽three times since March 2005, BLS has reclassified some employment that was聽previously in life/annuity carriers into other subsectors, making it hard to聽know what to use for a baseline. The most recent reclassification ended in March聽2015. From then through October 2017, employment in the life/annuity a segment聽has generally risen from 318,500 to 348,700 (up 30,200, or 9.5 percent). It has聽remained close to 350,000 for 15 consecutive months.

For the 12 months ending October 2017,聽health carrier employment rose by 12,100 (+2.6 percent) to 479,000, The health聽carrier segment had been gaining jobs quite steadily for decades. However, as聽with the life/annuity carrier sector, the health carrier sector had a major聽reclassification beginning in March 2015, which reset the sector鈥檚 employment聽from 517,900 in March 2015 to 457,200 in March 2016. Since then, employment in聽this sector rose by 21,800 or +4.8 percent.聽

The agent/broker segment gained 5,700聽jobs in October 2017 vs. October 2016 (up 0.7 percent) to 786,800. Employment聽growth in this category in the three years 2013 to 2015 was extremely strong.聽In March 2013 this segment employed 658,400, so that in 36 months, employment聽rose by 111,300, or 16.8 percent. More granularly, employment in this segment聽rose by 31,600 in 2013, by 52,300 in 2014, and by 27,400 in 2015. But the spurt聽slowed in 2016 (up by 7,800) and in 2017 (up by 3,400 in the 10 months of聽2017). Some of the spurt might simply have been a recovery from the drop in聽employment in this segment in the years 2007 to 2011, when employment dropped from 667,200 in January 2007 to 642,500 in February 2011 (down by 24,700).

Among the smaller industry segments,聽reinsurance carrier employment in the U.S. was down by 300 to 24,700 in October聽2017 vs. October 2016. Employment at independent claims-adjusting firms on a聽year-over-year basis for聽October 2017 rose by 3,800 to 62,900. This is due, as聽expected, to the hiring of 7,300 in September (up 12.8 percent over the August聽employment level) in the wake of the extensive destruction caused by Hurricanes聽Harvey, Irma,聽and Maria, and then a net reduction of 1,600 in October 2017 vs.聽September. Year-over-year employment in the category of third party聽administration of insurance funds fell by 200 (-0.1 percent) to 186,300.聽Employment in this category grew quite steadily for over two decades, but it聽has been virtually flat for the past two years. It is currently near an聽all-time peak, which was reached in December 2016 at 187,700.

 

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